Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what's shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they'll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they'll spend less, down two points as well.

The survey of 1,002 Americans nationwide was conducted Dec. 5-8 by Hart Research in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

When it comes to prices, 64% say they are higher this year compared to last for their holiday gifts, with 34% saying they are much higher. More than a quarter of participants say they are about the same, and just 4% are seeing lower prices.

The result: average spending per person comes in at $1,014, about typical for the past several years, but down from a large outlying number of $1,308 in 2023.

Older and lower-income Americans and women aged 18 to 49 are those most likely to say they'll spend less. At 36%, inflation tops the list of reasons cited by those spending less. More than 1 in 5 say it's because they have less income, and 20% report it's because they have trouble paying their bills. In all, 46% of Americans say they have arrived at the holiday season with a some or a lot of debt and they also plan to spend less than most. 

Inflation lingers on shoppers' minds

Among those spending more are younger Americans aged 18-34, as well as those living in urban counties and Latinos. Of those who are spending more, 37% say it's because their incomes are higher, but that's followed by 25% who cite higher prices.

"Inflation is still really on people's minds,'' said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, who served as the Democratic pollster for the survey. He said the data show, "To the degree inflation has an effect, it is a pushing down spending more than pushing up spending."

A brief holiday shopping season

Another factor for shoppers to negotiate this season: Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 28, the latest date possible, meaning a shorter season. The survey found that about half of Americans have done less than half or none of their shopping when the poll was taken. A third said they had done none at all.

Men led the way in procrastination with 55% saying they had done less than half of their planned spending. That compares to 40% of women. Women over 50 appear to be among the most organized with 45% saying they had done more than half or all their shopping. Just over half of those who say they are spending more also got a good head start.

It may be that late shoppers could be waiting for bargains: The group tends to be not just men, but also lower income Americans who plan to spend less this holiday season than last. Every year there is a silent game of chicken between retailers and consumers, in which retailers try to entice shoppers to come out early for bargains. However, some consumers wait, believing prices could be improve as the season nears a close.

Consumers make holiday purchases online

In terms of where Americans will shop, 61% say they will do most or all of their spending at online only sites such as Amazon, followed by 43% who choose big-box stores and 26% at locally owned non-chain stores. Less than 1 in 5 say wholesale retail stores like Costco Wholesale, and 18% say department stores.

The percentage of Americans shopping online differs little by political party or age. A big difference is seen by age, with participants 65 and older preferring online shopping by 11 points less than the average. The wealthiest Americans choose online only stores by 25 points more than those with the lowest incomes.

One in five respondents report seeing a product on a social media site and clicking through to buy it. About half of those just click on a regular product ad on social media to purchase it. But 15% say they click on a link from a social media influencer. Those most likely to be influenced by influencers tend to be younger, female and lower income. They report lower spending intentions, suggesting they use influencers to look for bargains. Those who click through on social media ads report higher spending intentions.

The latest consumer price index was somewhat at odds with Americans' attitudes on inflation. The November CPI rose 2.7% year over year, four-tenths of a point less than last year. Goods prices actually are down 0.6% year over year. The differences suggests, regardless of the rate of inflation, ordinary Americans remain focused on the price level, which jumped sharply during the pandemic and has remained elevated.

The full economic survey can be found here.