The top 10 things to watch in the stock market this Black Friday

The top 10 things to watch Friday, Nov. 29

1. U.S. stock futures are up on the final trading day of November, as the 10-year Treasury pulled back to its lowest level since Oct. 30 and the 2-year hit its lowest level since Nov. 8. Wall Street is on pace for a winning week and month. As a reminder, the markets close at 1 p.m. ET.

2. Bloomberg reported that Biden administration is considering additional semiconductor equipment and AI chip export restrictions to China. Chip stocks are up, however, as the restrictions appear to be less severe than feared.

3. The S&P 500 Short Range Oscillator closed out Wednesday at 3.94%, indicating that a relatively positive session today could push us into overbought territory. (Anything above a plus 4% would indicate the market is overbought; anything below a minus 4% would indicate the market is oversold.) Moreover, it will likely be a very low volume trading day, which means there's no need to chase any large moves to the upside.

4. The Federal Trade Commission announced a broad-based antitrust investigation into Microsoft on Wednesday evening. Analysts at Wedbush said in a note this morning that while the news isn't all that surprising — the FTC has been informally speaking with competitors and partners — "the dark days for tech with [Commissioner] Lina Kahn at the FTC appear numbered now with a Trump White House."

5. Australia is looking to ban kids under the age of 16 from using social media. How exactly that is enforced remains to be seen, but it appears the onus will be on the tech companies. 

6. The holiday shopping season is ramping up. Salesforce data shows that online sales are up about 4% to start the season, compared to 2% this time last year, according to Reuters. To be sure, the report cites other data from the National Retail Federation and Deloitte, which indicate that this is expected to be the slowest holiday shopping season in six years.

7. Supporters of President-elect Donald Trump are planning to spend more this Black Friday, while Kamala Harris voters might pull their budgets back, according to CNBC's Gabrielle Fonrouge. An analysis of shipping volumes surged in many red states and fell in most blue states following the election, as Trump supporters are optimistic about the economy and Harris voters are more pessimistic.

8. Several retail stocks were slightly higher Friday as Black Friday got underway. Walmart rose 0.2%, Target gained 0.1%, Dick's Sporting Goods was up 0.6%, and Costco increased 0.15%.

9. In case you missed it, we answered a question from the Mailbag Wednesday, which asked what we look for after identifying a stock we're interested in. Here are the two big questions we look to answer.

10. Box-office analysts expect the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, to easily clear $200 million in ticket sales, according to a CNBC report. That would make it the best showing since the Covid-19 pandemic. It could end up the top third or second Thanksgiving weekends of all time as well. Driving those ticket sales: Disney's "Moana 2," Universal's "Wicked," and Paramount's "Gladiator II." 

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