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U.S. Treasury yields move lower as consumer outlook plunges

Traders work underneath GameStop Corp. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024. 
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Traders work underneath GameStop Corp. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024. 

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on March 24, 2025. 
NYSE
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on March 24, 2025. 

U.S. Treasury yields moved lower Tuesday following another dip in consumer confidence that showed optimism on the future hit its lowest in more than a decade.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its expectations index plunged 9.6 points to a reading of 65.2, the worst level in 12 years and well below the 80 threshold consistent with recessions.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, after being slightly higher earlier, declined by 1.4 basis points to 4.317%. At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield added to its losses, off 2 basis points at 4.017%.

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverse relationship.

Yields had been slightly positive on reports that President Donald Trump's tariffs might be more limited in scope and sector-specific duties may be postponed.

The White House's planned tariffs set for April 2 are expected to be more narrow in scope, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. Trump also on Friday suggested some "flexibility" for his reciprocal tariff plans for trading partners.

In other economic news, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for January, which tracks changes in residential home prices, showed slightly higher than expected gains. The major data release of the week will be the Fed's favored measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, on Friday.

Separate data showed home sales at an annual rate of 676,000 in February, about in line with expectations.

The S&P Global PMI released on Monday showed a reading of 54.3, above the 51.5 consensus estimate from Dow Jones and up from 51 in February. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

"Our bias is to expect U.S. real economy data to continue to look decent through March, challenging recently bearish equity market sentiment," Eastspring Investments wrote in a note published Tuesday.

However, Eastspring Investments' economists noted that the data is largely pre-tariffs, and that hard data will only begin to reflect the post-tariff economy from April and May onward.

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