Germany's far right is on course to win the most votes in a state election for the first time since the Nazi era, in a major rebuke of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling center-left coalition.
Projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF based on exit polls suggest that the anti-immigration, nationalist party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has finished first in the east German state of Thuringia, securing about 31% to 33% of the vote.
The Christian Democratic Union, Germany’s second-largest party, finished second with 24.5% of the votes in Thuringia. Scholz's Social Democratic Party appears to have cleared the 5% threshold needed to make it into the state parliaments.
In Saxony, another east German state in the heart of what was once communist East Germany, the AfD has 30% to 31% of the vote, putting it neck-and-neck with the CDU, which has 31.5% to 32% of the vote, according to projection polls.
All other parties have vowed not to form coalitions with the AfD, so it remains to be seen whether it will be able to win any real governing power.
But the AfD’s success in Thuringia in a huge win nonetheless for a party that was launched only in 2013.
And the results make grim reading for Scholz, who will seek re-election in 12 months with his party now polling behind a galvanized AfD.
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Pollsters had predicted a strong showing from the far-right AfD, despite a string of controversies linked to its leadership. The party is under monitoring by the country’s domestic intelligence agency for suspected extremism, while party leader Björne Höcke has twice been found guilty by a German court of purposely employing Nazi rhetoric, while. He has appealed the rulings.
In May, the party’s top candidate, Maximilian Krah, was forced to withdraw from campaigning after he told an Italian newspaper that the SS, the Nazis’ main paramilitary force, were “not all criminals.” One of his aides was also charged with spying for China, and another candidate faced allegations of receiving bribes from a pro-Russian news portal.
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But the party has nonetheless gained massive ground and support, particularly among younger voters.
Set up as a movement against the euro currency, the AfD shifted its focus to Islam and immigration and has grown in popularity at both the local and national levels ever since, particularly in the former East Germany, the former communist half of the country, which had strong ties to the then-Soviet Union; polling has shown there is more skepticism about NATO and Germany’s support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
In June’s European Parliament elections, the party finished second in Germany, and voters have now offered their support in the state elections as the AfD has capitalized on growing disillusionment with Scholz’s governing coalition.
The coalition, made up of the center-left Social Democrats, the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats, has struggled to grapple with Russia’s war with Ukraine, slow economic growth, advance the transition to green energy and a respond to renewed debate about migration sparked by a recent terrorist attack.
The AfD made the most of a drop in support for the ruling parties.
Its emergence as a major political force has severely weakened Germany’s mainstream political parties, and it could force others into tense and unlikely alliances. And if the AfD wins a third of the seats in either Thuringia or Saxony, it will be able to block votes requiring two-thirds majorities.
It is also best placed to further challenge the status quo in next year’s general elections. On the national level, it is polling as the country’s second-biggest party, with 18%, ahead of Scholz' SDP.
The AfD has 12 months to continue expanding its influence across the country in search of real power, while its opponents will use Sunday's results as a rallying cry for those who wish to stop the far right.
Carlo Angerer contributed.
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