Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives by the thinnest of margins, NBC News projected Wednesday, handing President-elect Donald Trump and his party all the levers of power in Washington.
A Republican-controlled Congress will allow Trump to quickly fill out his Cabinet and other top administration roles and advance his agenda for at least the next two years. Last week, Republicans flipped three Democratic Senate seats to win control of the upper chamber.
House Republicans’ razor-thin victory was propelled by Trump’s decisive win over Vice President Kamala Harris in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. It represents a stinging blow to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats, who now will have virtually no check on Trump, a man they warned on the campaign trail is a threat to democracy, an extremist and a fascist.
"It is a beautiful morning in Washington. It is a new day in America," a celebratory Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said on the steps of the Capitol, flanked by his leadership team, as the House returned to Washington on Tuesday. "The sun is shining, and that is a reflection about how we all feel."
How Republicans won
Democrats had believed they were in a good position to win back the majority they lost just two years ago. They needed a net gain of only four seats to flip control of the House given that Republicans now hold 220 seats to the Democrats’ 212 — one of the smallest majorities in modern history.
But the two parties basically have fought to a draw in the House, preserving a status quo that favored Republicans.
In New York, Democrats were able to knock off a trio of vulnerable freshman GOP incumbents: Rep. Brandon Williams in the Syracuse region, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito on Long Island, and Rep. Marc Molinaro, whose district includes parts of the Hudson Valley and the Catskills. They were among the 18 GOP House districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020.
Democratic challenger George Whitesides also ousted vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in Southern California.
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But Trump’s triumph — including wins in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan where there were key House races — helped buoy GOP incumbents and new candidates in the places that mattered.
Two of the biggest GOP prizes came in the Keystone State. Republicans unseated two vulnerable, veteran Democrats in neighboring districts in eastern Pennsylvania. GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan ousted six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright, a former member of leadership, in the 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. In the neighboring 7th District based in Allentown, GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie upset Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, the top Democrat on the House Ethics Committee.
Meanwhile, In the capital of Harrisburg, Democrats believed they had a good chance to knock off former Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry, a Trump ally who played a role in the effort to overturn the 2020 election. But the six-term incumbent beat back a strong challenge from former local TV anchor Janelle Stelson, who attacked Perry on everything from the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and abortion rights to his votes on veterans issues.
Republicans also captured a Michigan seat that had been held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who successfully ran for an open Senate seat. And GOP challenger Gabe Evans narrowly defeated freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., by less than 1 percentage point in a heavily Hispanic district north of Denver.
The task of governing
The tiny House victory is hugely consequential as Republicans turn to the task of governing. When Trump and his congressional allies take the reins in January, they will have another rare opportunity to push through major policy initiatives through “reconciliation” — an arcane process that would allow the GOP to fast-track legislation without Democratic support.
Discussions about what reforms to pursue began even before the election, with some Republicans pushing to use reconciliation to renew expiring Trump tax cuts and others like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Trump ally, calling for Republicans to take up border security legislation. It’s not yet clear what would be in that border bill, but Trump has said repeatedly that he will “seal” the southern border on day one as president and launch “the largest deportation program in American history.”
In the closing days of the campaign, Johnson told supporters a “massive” reform of the Affordable Care Act would be part of the GOP’s first 100-day agenda, though he has since denied that Republicans would try to repeal Obamacare as they failed to do in 2017.
With very little wiggle room, Republicans are sure to run into challenges. And Trump has already selected two members of the new majority to serve in his administration, Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida. Both are in solidly Republican districts the party will likely carry in special elections to replace them, but vacancies following their departures could be an issue for Johnson.
The GOP had a minuscule majority in this Congress, and it struggled to push its agenda forward. Instead, the past two years were defined by a successful conservative coup against Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, the expulsion of a New York Republican congressman and intraparty squabbling over GOP spending bills.
Johnson and Republicans will now have partners in a Senate majority and the White House, which they hope will allow them to rally behind Trump and put some of that infighting behind them. Johnson and his top lieutenants — Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a fellow Louisiana Republican, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. — are all running unopposed for re-election in their top jobs on Wednesday.
Johnson will still need to secure 218 votes on the House floor on the first day of the new Congress, in early January, to win his first full term as speaker.
“If there’s unified government … if we have a bicameral approach — Republicans in both chambers working together to develop that agenda and implement it, and President Trump is guiding the way — I think you will certainly have a lot less dissension in the ranks on our side,” Johnson said in an interview with NBC News at a Pennsylvania campaign stop before the election.
“I think everybody’s going to want to be a part of that majority that is solving the problems of the country,” the speaker added. “And I think governing is going to be a whole lot easier come January.”
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