Masters Tournament

Can Justin Rose win the Masters after leading Round 1? Here's what history says

It's crucial to be in the mix after Round 1 at the Masters, but how often does the Thursday leader earn the green jacket?

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With the 88th edition of the Masters Tournament looming, here’s the list of who has won the most Masters Tournaments in history.

Eighteen holes down, 54 to go.

Justin Rose finished Thursday as the Round 1 leader at the 2025 Masters Tournament. The two-time Masters runner-up shot a 7-under 65, putting himself three strokes above the rest of the pack.

There's still a long way to go on the quest for a green jacket, of course. But how does Rose's strong start bode for his chances of winning the major tournament?

Here's a look back at how Round 1 leaders ultimately fare at the Masters.

How often does the Round 1 leader win the Masters?

A strong start is important at the Masters, but the opening-round leader rarely winds up with the green jacket.

In the last 25 years, only four Masters winners were leading or tied for the lead after the first round, per Today's Golfer: Trevor Immelman (2008), Jordan Spieth (2015), Dustin Johnson (2020) and Jon Rahm (2023).

While leading after Round 1 if far from a requirement to win the Masters, it is essential to be in the mix after Thursday.

Each of the last 25 Masters winners were in the top 10 after 18 holes, and each of the last eight champions were in the top five at the end of the first round.

How many times has there been a wire-to-wire Masters winner?

Five golfers who have led after the first round at the Masters have gone on to hold that lead through the second and third rounds and then win the tournament, per Golfweek: Craig Wood (1941), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972), Raymond Floyd (1976) and Spieth (2015).

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