Breaking down where Giants stand at quarter mark of 2023 season originally appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea
SAN FRANCISCO -- Last May 24, Bryce Harper hit a two-run homer off Atlanta Braves closer Kenley Jansen to give the Philadelphia Phillies a one-run lead in the ninth inning in Atlanta. They couldn't hold it. Ronald Acuña Jr. raced home for the winning run in the bottom of the inning and both teams finished the night at 20-23.
That's exactly where the Giants are after a sweep of Harper and the Phillies, and if they want hope that much better days are ahead, that NL East game from last May is a pretty good place to start.
The Braves recovered from that sluggish start to win 101 games and take the division. The Phillies won 87 games to clinch a Wild Card spot, then steamrolled through the NL's postseason bracket and into the World Series.
That's not how anybody draws it up in spring training, and life at a ballpark is a lot more fun when you get off to a good start, which the Giants certainly could have used after a disappointing offseason that's led to smaller crowds at Oracle Park than ever before. But the great thing about playing 162 games is that you have plenty of time to catch up, and the Giants are only a quarter of the way through their schedule.
Here are five trends that sum up their current position, and some thoughts on what they might mean for the rest of the season, which the Giants hope is more productive and also a bit more entertaining:
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Money Well ... Well, It Was Spent ...
The offseason built around Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa ended up being about quantity more than anything else. The Giants didn't nab their superstar, but they signed two outfielders, a DH, two starters and two relievers.
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They were betting on the group to duplicate what Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Joc Pederson (in 2022) and other short-term additions brought, but there's a reason most teams don't do it that way.
It's really, really hard to maintain that kind of batting average on offseason additions, and this year's crop has been a huge disappointment thus far.
Combined, the newcomers have been worth negative Wins Above Replacement, although there are some signs of life. Michael Conforto has a .739 OPS on the season, but he does have four homers in the last eight games and seems to have found his all-fields swing. Taylor Rogers hasn't given up an earned run since dumping his glove in a trash can a month ago, and Tuesday's win might have been his best night in orange and black.
For the other notable additions, the wait continues.
Mitch Haniger has a .514 OPS and hasn't homered outside of the thin air of Mexico City. Ross Stripling (7.24 ERA) and Sean Manaea (7.81) have been hit so hard that the Giants don't know what to do with the final spot in their rotation every five days after committing $50 million to the veterans in the offseason.
Kyle Harrison might eventually be the answer there, but when it comes to the lineup, the Giants won't have a shot if Conforto and Haniger don't return to form. Manager Gabe Kapler has kept the faith, penciling both into the heart of his lineup despite the struggles.
"They're two guys that we're depending on heavily and believe in and know that they're going to have good years," he said. "When you have guys with track records of success and they're still in the primes of their careers and they stay healthy, you expect that at the end of the year you'll see good numbers."
The Giants are counting on the track records, and they'd better be right. At the moment, the offseason looks like a disastrous one for the front office.
A New Set Of Stars
For as unproductive as the additions have been, the Giants are afloat because of some very shrewd moves previously made by the front office. Thairo Estrada, LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis were acquired for the grand sum of Shaun Anderson (now pitching in South Korea), Darin Ruf (who briefly returned to the Giants this year) and some cash.
Estrada and Wade rank among the top 25 in the Majors in fWAR and Davis has seven homers and ranks among the league leaders in Outs Above Average. Estrada, 27, looks like a foundational piece. Wade has allowed the Giants to not miss a beat without Brandon Belt. Davis was so good in April that David Villar lost the third base job after an offseason of hype.
There are slumps coming at some point because that's the nature of the game, but those three certainly look capable of sustaining most of what they've done for 43 games. Throw in the emergence of Casey Schmitt and the Giants all of a sudden have a pretty stacked group of infielders under team control through next season.
Need To Take Advantage
The "pitcher win" is just about dead, as we were reminded again on Monday night, when Alex Wood was pulled after 4 2/3 innings for the second time this season. But a team's record behind a pitcher can still tell you quite a bit.
In Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani, the Giants have one of the best trios in baseball, but they're just 13-13 in games started by one of those three. If they fall a win or two short of a postseason spot, they'll regret wasting some of the early dominance from the top of the rotation.
Cobb has been the best of the bunch, posting a 1.94 ERA that ranks second in the Majors. DeSclafani is at 3.06 and Webb is at 3.20 after some early struggles. All three have been healthy and durable, too, with Webb sitting atop the NL in innings pitched.
Even with the issues at the back end, the Giants rank second in the NL in starters' ERA. It's the strength of the team, and they have to take advantage of the good nights.
Can It Be Fixed?
The bullpen led the Majors in ERA in 2021 but dropped to 20th last season. This year's group is 28th, with a 5.54 cumulative ERA that's better than only the A's and White Sox. They're 26th in walk rate, 27th in FIP and 29th in home run rate. Per Statcast, they're giving up the hardest contact in the Majors.
And yet, at times -- like in the Phillies series -- the bullpen looks like a versatile group that could deftly work its way through a postseason. After Wednesday's game, Kapler said he thinks the relievers have "stabilized."
"I understand that we had some hiccups early on, but I feel like Tay Rog has done a really nice job and Tyler Rogers has been dependable throughout," Kapler said. "You look at Brebbia's FIP relative to his ERA and he's missing a ton of bats, his fastball has a lot of carry and life, and he's touching 96 and throwing his slider for strikes.
"This was the bullpen that we expected when we came into the season. A bullpen that performs and is deep."
At times over the first quarter of the season, it seemed Kapler only trusted Doval and Tyler Rogers, but Brebbia, Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander have looked sharp lately. The Giants should also get a key piece back in two weeks when Luke Jackson, part of the offseason haul, comes off the 60-day IL after Tommy John rehab.
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The ingredients are there for the bullpen to replicate that 2021 success ahead of Doval, who looks headed for an All-Star appearance. But more consistency is needed from the veterans, because Kapler can't turn to Doval every time he has a late lead, as he has done all May.
Help From Others
The Giants haven't spent a day above .500 this season, but they're just two games out of a playoff spot. Welcome to life with an extra Wild Card -- and life in what seems to be a very mediocre National League.
The Dodgers have mixed youth in with their superstars and look poised to again win the West, and the Braves are a juggernaut in the East. But the offseason darlings have struggled.
The Mets are 21-23, the Phillies are 20-23 and looked remarkably flat for three days at Oracle Park, and the Padres are 20-24 and held a team meeting after Wednesday's loss. The current Wild Card teams are the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Marlins.
There's good news and bad news there for the Giants. They haven't been buried by their slow start, but they also find themselves as part of a pack of teams that are more talented on paper, teams that are going to get hot at some point.
To keep up, the Giants will need more from their offseason additions and bullpen, and more of the same from their surprising early stars. Or ... they could try and find a way to clone Schmitt.
